Centre for Macroeconomic Policy

The Centre for Macroeconomic policy (MPC) plays a central role in advising and planning economic policy by assessing fiscal policy challenges through medium- and long-term forecasts, including the 2025-plan. Moreover, MPC performs economic impact assessments in macroeconomic models and evaluations of structural policy changes. The division acts as an analytical powerhouse with responsibilities requiring a combination of extensive economic expertise and insights in micro- and macroeconomic conditions.

MPC is responsible for the medium-term forecasts and plans and is charged with carrying out calculations and estimations of the structural public budget balance, output gap, fiscal effects as well as fiscal space and sustainability. In addition, the division conducts impact assessments of policy changes in macroeconomic and register-based models regarding pensions, retirement and structural employment – as well as income taxation.

The division’s analyses are based on both the micro- and macroeconomic level, drawing on individual-level register data and medium-term forecasts. Subjects of analysis include net fiscal contributions of immigrants, demographic expenditures, effects of early retirement and developments in educational attainment patterns.

MPC is responsible for continuously maintaining and developing central methods used in calculations, as well as evaluating and strengthening the technical and empirical foundations on which forecasts are made. This includes calculation methods related to the effects of changes in tax rates and public services, as well as the development of the new macroeconomic model, MAKRO, which is to be used for both forecasts and impact analyses of economic policy and other shocks.

MPC’s work is both varied and closely tied to the political process.