25-05-2014Budget Outlook 1, May 2014, presents a status of fiscal policy and central and general government finances.
The public deficit amounts to 0.9 per cent of GDP in 2013. According to the European Commission’s 2014 spring forecast the deficit is estimated to remain below 3 per cent of GDP in 2014 and 2015. Thus, Denmark’s EU recommendation is expected to be abrogated at the next meeting among the Economic and Finance Ministers of the EU (ECOFIN) in June.
According to Budget Outlook 1 the public deficit is estimated to 1.4 per cent of GDP in 2014 and 3.0 per cent of GDP in 2015. Measured on EDP-basis – which is method used by the European Commission – the public deficit is estimated to 1.3 per cent of GDP and 2.9 per cent of GDP in 2014 and 2015 respectively.
The deficit of the structural balance is estimated to 0.7 per cent of GDP in 2014 and 0.4 per cent of GDP in 2015. Thus, the actual as well as the structural deficit are close to the limits within the Budget Law and within the EU's Stability and Growth Pact in 2015.
Fiscal policy and other economic policy initiatives from 2012 onwards are estimated to have increased the GDP level by 0.2 per cent in both 2013 and 2014.
The deficit of the central government account (the CIL-account) is estimated to DKK 38½bn in 2014 corresponding to 2.0 per cent of GDP. Based on an updated status for central government spending in 2014, the expenditures are estimated to be below the expenditure ceilings of the central government.