Budget Outlook 2, August 2014


Budget Outlook 2, August 2014, presents a status of fiscal policy and central government finances and general government finances.

The Danish recommendation under the excessive deficit procedure was abrogated at the ECOFIN meeting in June 2014. The abrogation of the recommendation reflects that the Commission assesses the public deficit in 2013 to be sustainably below 3 per cent of GDP. 

According to Budget Outlook 2 the government estimates a public deficit of approximately DKK 22bn in 2014 (1.2 per cent of GDP) and DKK 60bn in 2015 (3.0 per cent of GDP). 

The deficit on the structural balance is estimated to 0.5 per cent of GDP in 2015, while the actual general government deficit amounts to 3.0 per cent of GDP. Thus, both the actual deficit and the structural deficit are at the limit in the Budget Law and at the limit in EU's Stability and Growth Pact in 2015. 

Based on the central government budget proposal for 2015 the deficit of the central government account (the CIL-account) is estimated to DKK 45bn in 2015 or 2.3 per cent of GDP. 

The estimates for the general government finances and central government finances are based on the short term projection for the Danish economy, cf. Economic Survey , August 2014.  

Moreover, expenditure ceilings for 2018 have been determined. The expenditure ceilings for 2018 follow an updated medium term projection to 2020.